Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | USI +230 INST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +3 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -0.9 (+3.9) | 153.1 (+19.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.7 (+3.7) | 152.4 (+20.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.7 (+3.7) | 152.7 (+20.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.8 (+3.8) | 154.1 (+18.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | INST 77 – 55 USI |
| Nov 26, 2024 | USI 87 – 77 INST |
| Dec 9, 2023 | INST 98 – 54 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#187) | 6.4 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#194) | 1.77 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#201) | 2.10 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#166) | 0.577 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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