Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | USI +125 INST -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | USI -7.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -6.3 (+3.7) | 152.8 (+11.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -1.0 (+9.0) | 157.7 (+6.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -4.8 (+5.2) | 151.5 (+12.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -4.9 (+5.1) | 151.3 (+12.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | INST 77 – 55 USI |
| Dec 9, 2023 | INST 98 – 54 USI |
| Dec 11, 2022 | USI 88 – 85 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#215) | -3.9 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#253) | -0.90 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#258) | -1.78 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#221) | 0.379 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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