Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | UK -1000 PENN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UK -12.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -9.0 (+6.0) | 155.9 (-8.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -8.5 (+6.5) | 158.0 (-11.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -9.1 (+5.9) | 159.6 (-12.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -9.5 (+5.5) | 158.2 (-11.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | -1.3 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#109) | -0.36 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#92) | 0.07 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#113) | 0.457 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 2.29 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 11.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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