Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -37.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +38 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -35.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -28.2 (+9.8) | 161.2 (+2.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -25.9 (+12.1) | 168.3 (-4.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -35.2 (+2.8) | 166.8 (-2.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -36.7 (+1.3) | 164.8 (-0.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 83.7 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#8) | -12.5 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#9) | -2.06 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.16 (#8) | -3.86 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#8) | 0.469 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 59.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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