Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | UMBC +205 TOW -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +16 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -0.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.4 (-15.6) | 139.3 (+22.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.3 (-16.3) | 141.9 (+20.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.6 (-15.4) | 141.4 (+20.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.4 (-12.6) | 139.7 (+22.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | UMBC 84 – 71 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-9 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#328) | -3.4 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#317) | -1.11 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.97 (#320) | -1.31 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.343 (#357) | 0.457 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 15.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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