Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -600 UMBC +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +13 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -12.2 (-25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -9.7 (-22.7) | 138.6 (+16.4) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -10.0 (-23.0) | 138.5 (+16.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -9.4 (-22.4) | 138.3 (+16.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -11.3 (-24.3) | 139.4 (+15.6) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | TOW 89 – 73 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | -8.5 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#159) | -2.48 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#157) | -3.12 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#106) | 0.375 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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