Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -333 USF +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +16 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -7.9 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -4.2 (-20.2) | 139.0 (+21.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -5.5 (-21.5) | 136.1 (+23.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -5.4 (-21.4) | 136.7 (+23.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -5.4 (-21.4) | 141.1 (+18.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#75) | -1.4 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#142) | -2.16 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#129) | -2.81 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#64) | 0.392 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 24.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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