Betting Lines
| Spread | HOF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | SLU +170 HOF -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HOF -7.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOF -6.5 (+9.5) | 151.2 (-12.2) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOF -3.7 (+6.7) | 149.7 (-10.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOF -4.3 (+7.3) | 150.8 (-11.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOF -4.9 (+7.9) | 151.4 (-12.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#258) | 8.2 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#157) | 1.95 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#146) | 2.96 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#146) | 0.572 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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