Four young chiquitas in Omaha waitin' for the band to return from the show. "We're an American Band" - Grand Funk Railroad
Cameron Hall · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread AMER -5.5 Away covered
O/U 147.0 Under
Money VMI +178 / AMER -215
Model Predictions
Spread Total VMI win
Actual AMER +8 146 Lost
Massey VMI -6.0 (-14.0) — —
Massey Totals — 149.2 (-3.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 50% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 41% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ VMI -0.4 (-8.4) 140.4 (+5.6) 35% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML VMI -2.6 (-10.6) 141.6 (+4.4) 57% ✗
Baseline ML VMI -2.8 (-10.8) 142.4 (+3.6) 56% ✗
Baseline Plus ML VMI -2.1 (-10.1) 142.0 (+4.0) 51% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 13, 2022 AMER 69 – 61 VMI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VMI AMER
Overall 4-28 16-16
Conference 1-17 10-8
Home 4-10 8-7
Away 0-15 8-9
Neutral 0-3 0-0
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L13 L2
Avg Pts For 66.7 67.6
Avg Pts Against 84.9 67.8
Massey -6.7 (#298) -7.2 (#304)
Bradley-Terry -3.54 (#357) -2.27 (#326)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.92 (#356) -3.10 (#322)
RPI 0.357 (#351) 0.387 (#332)
Shooting & Four Factors VMI AMER
FG% 43.2% 43.0%
3PT% 31.0% 32.1%
REB / G 39.4 33.8
OREB / G 10.3 11.6
AST / TO 0.54 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.0% 50.5%
TOV% 23.4% 17.7%
ORB% 28.3% 33.0%
FT Rate 14.6% 19.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 56.3%
Opp TOV% 14.1% 16.8%
DRB% 70.1% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.4% 23.9%

Game Analysis

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