Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | VMI +178 AMER -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | VMI -6.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -0.4 (-8.4) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -2.6 (-10.6) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -2.8 (-10.8) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -2.1 (-10.1) | 142.0 (+4.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2022 | AMER 69 – 61 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 0-15 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#298) | -7.2 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.54 (#357) | -2.27 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.92 (#356) | -3.10 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.357 (#351) | 0.387 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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