Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -450 VMI +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -17.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -9.2 (-1.2) | 137.2 (-7.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -13.8 (-5.8) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -13.8 (-5.8) | 143.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -13.3 (-5.3) | 137.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | AMER 77 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#128) | -9.5 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#97) | -1.48 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#117) | -1.96 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.386 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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