Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -290 TULN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +30 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -2.4 (+27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+37.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.5 (+25.5) | 146.1 (+35.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.8 (+27.2) | 140.6 (+41.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.2 (+27.8) | 141.2 (+40.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.4 (+27.6) | 146.3 (+35.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#45) | 7.4 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#43) | 1.41 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#22) | 1.83 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#33) | 0.537 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 53.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 5.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 44.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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