Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | OU -180 ARK +152 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | OU -9.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -7.3 (+1.7) | 152.1 (-3.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -5.9 (+3.1) | 149.5 (-0.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -7.9 (+1.1) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -7.0 (+2.0) | 149.6 (-0.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 82 – 79 OU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ARK 83 – 79 OU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | OU 65 – 62 ARK |
| Dec 10, 2022 | ARK 88 – 78 OU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | OU 88 – 66 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#15) | 4.4 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#14) | 0.30 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#17) | 0.63 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#42) | 0.523 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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