Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -258 OU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -6.3 (-3.3) | 162.4 (-1.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.8 (-1.8) | 163.3 (-2.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.2 (-2.2) | 160.5 (+0.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.3 (-2.3) | 160.7 (+0.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | ARK 83 – 79 OU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | OU 65 – 62 ARK |
| Dec 9, 2023 | OU 79 – 70 ARK |
| Dec 10, 2022 | ARK 88 – 78 OU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | OU 88 – 66 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#14) | 12.4 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#18) | 1.92 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#16) | 2.60 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#8) | 0.530 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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