Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | OU +140 ARK -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -6.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.8 (+3.8) | 163.2 (-1.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -3.5 (-0.5) | 165.1 (-3.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.8 (+1.8) | 162.8 (-0.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.2 (+2.2) | 161.3 (+0.7) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 82 – 79 OU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | OU 65 – 62 ARK |
| Dec 9, 2023 | OU 79 – 70 ARK |
| Dec 10, 2022 | ARK 88 – 78 OU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | OU 88 – 66 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#71) | 18.8 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#86) | 3.21 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#78) | 4.30 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#168) | 0.638 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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