Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -125 OU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -2.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (+34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.3 (+8.7) | 135.9 (+30.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -1.5 (+8.5) | 133.3 (+32.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.4 (+8.6) | 135.8 (+30.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.9 (+9.1) | 137.4 (+28.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 82 – 79 OU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ARK 83 – 79 OU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | OU 65 – 62 ARK |
| Dec 9, 2023 | OU 79 – 70 ARK |
| Dec 11, 2021 | OU 88 – 66 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#34) | 8.9 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#38) | 1.74 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#36) | 2.95 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#47) | 0.583 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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