Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -0.4 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -0.6 (+22.6) | 146.0 (+8.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -1.7 (+23.7) | 140.1 (+13.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.7 (+23.7) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.4 (+22.4) | 143.0 (+11.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 82 – 79 OU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ARK 83 – 79 OU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | OU 65 – 62 ARK |
| Dec 9, 2023 | OU 79 – 70 ARK |
| Dec 10, 2022 | ARK 88 – 78 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#52) | 8.8 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#65) | 3.53 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#66) | 5.51 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#87) | 0.610 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 81.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.