Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
OceanFirst Bank Center · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MONM -0.5 Home covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money MONM +100 / NIU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total MONM win
Actual MONM +3 145 Won
Massey MONM -3.3 (-0.3)
Massey Totals 158.6 (-13.6)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 62%
Baseline Plus ML MONM -3.0 (-0.0) 156.0 (-11.0) 64%
Baseline ML MONM -4.1 (-1.1) 152.6 (-7.6) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML MONM -3.8 (-0.8) 151.3 (-6.3) 64%
Efficiency Plus ML MONM -2.1 (+0.9) 155.5 (-10.5) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2024 NIU 7966 MONM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MONM NIU
Overall 18-15 11-20
Conference 10-8 5-13
Home 13-1 5-9
Away 2-13 5-11
Neutral 3-1 1-0
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 72.4 71.4
Avg Pts Against 72.6 79.2
Massey -0.4 (#178) 1.8 (#142)
Bradley-Terry 0.87 (#108) 1.79 (#54)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.23 (#107) 2.21 (#60)
RPI 0.520 (#144) 0.617 (#35)
Shooting & Four Factors MONM NIU
FG% 43.9% 45.9%
3PT% 38.4% 34.9%
REB / G 33.9 35.4
OREB / G 10.2 8.7
AST / TO 1.01 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 52.3%
TOV% 18.0% 15.8%
ORB% 29.4% 24.6%
FT Rate 25.2% 29.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.5% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 11.5%
DRB% 67.3% 68.2%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 19.2%

Game Analysis

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