Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | DAY -1100 TROY +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -15.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -10.6 (+1.4) | 145.1 (+6.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.0 (-1.0) | 147.2 (+4.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -14.2 (-2.2) | 148.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.9 (-1.9) | 145.5 (+6.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#57) | -1.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#27) | -1.49 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#31) | -1.11 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#11) | 0.364 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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