We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
The Nest · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SAC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money SAC -110 / CSUF +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual CSUF +2 122 Lost
Massey SAC -3.2 (-5.2) — —
Massey Totals — 135.2 (-13.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 28% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 29% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SAC -0.5 (-2.5) 136.9 (-14.9) 48% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SAC -1.7 (-3.7) 136.7 (-14.7) 53% ✗
Baseline ML SAC -1.6 (-3.6) 137.7 (-15.7) 57% ✗
Baseline Plus ML SAC -0.9 (-2.9) 136.5 (-14.5) 51% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2022 CSUF 59 – 49 SAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC CSUF
Overall 10-24 14-18
Conference 4-14 7-13
Home 6-8 7-7
Away 2-13 6-10
Neutral 2-3 1-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 64.2 66.4
Avg Pts Against 71.3 70.4
Massey -6.0 (#282) -3.7 (#240)
Bradley-Terry -1.56 (#298) 0.64 (#126)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.87 (#288) 0.50 (#152)
RPI 0.408 (#302) 0.555 (#98)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC CSUF
FG% 39.7% 40.6%
3PT% 31.8% 25.4%
REB / G 36.6 35.4
OREB / G 12.1 10.0
AST / TO 0.76 0.55
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.2% 44.9%
TOV% 24.2% 21.2%
ORB% 33.5% 28.3%
FT Rate 24.3% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.8% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 13.7% 15.9%
DRB% 73.4% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 21.0%

Game Analysis

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