Betting Lines
| Spread | SAC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SAC -110 CSUF +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | SAC -3.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAC -0.5 (-2.5) | 136.9 (-14.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -1.7 (-3.7) | 136.7 (-14.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAC -1.6 (-3.6) | 137.7 (-15.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAC -0.9 (-2.9) | 136.5 (-14.5) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | CSUF 59 – 49 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-24 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#282) | -3.7 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#298) | 0.64 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#288) | 0.50 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#302) | 0.555 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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