Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF -150 SAC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +10 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -2.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -4.1 (+5.9) | 134.8 (-26.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -1.5 (+8.5) | 137.9 (-29.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -0.8 (+9.2) | 136.8 (-28.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -1.6 (+8.4) | 137.4 (-29.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | CSUF 62 – 60 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#225) | -0.6 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#215) | 0.24 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | 0.10 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#224) | 0.531 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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