Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | LIB -215 GCU +178 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -6.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -5.1 (-10.1) | 137.8 (-4.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -6.7 (-11.7) | 144.5 (-11.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -6.2 (-11.2) | 145.9 (-12.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -6.9 (-11.9) | 141.7 (-8.7) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#49) | 7.5 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#45) | 2.62 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#48) | 3.73 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#44) | 0.623 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 40.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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