I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Liberty Arena (VA) · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LIB -4.5 Away covered
O/U 140.0 Under
Money LIB -215 / GCU +178
Model Predictions
Spread Total LIB win
Actual GCU +5 133 Lost
Massey LIB -6.9 (-11.9) — —
Massey Totals — 148.5 (-15.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 64% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 58% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LIB -5.1 (-10.1) 137.8 (-4.8) 64% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML LIB -6.7 (-11.7) 144.5 (-11.5) 73% ✗
Baseline ML LIB -6.2 (-11.2) 145.9 (-12.9) 69% ✗
Baseline Plus ML LIB -6.9 (-11.9) 141.7 (-8.7) 69% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LIB GCU
Overall 18-14 30-5
Conference 7-9 17-3
Home 12-3 16-0
Away 2-8 8-3
Neutral 4-3 5-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.4 77.8
Avg Pts Against 68.3 66.8
Massey 8.9 (#49) 7.5 (#62)
Bradley-Terry 1.96 (#45) 2.62 (#22)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.57 (#48) 3.73 (#25)
RPI 0.606 (#44) 0.623 (#30)
Shooting & Four Factors LIB GCU
FG% 48.4% 46.8%
3PT% 36.7% 31.6%
REB / G 34.4 39.2
OREB / G 9.6 12.9
AST / TO 1.56 0.75
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.1% 52.3%
TOV% 14.4% 19.3%
ORB% 29.2% 39.2%
FT Rate 17.2% 40.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 19.9%
DRB% 75.6% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 24.2%

Game Analysis

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