Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WYO +125 SFA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WYO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WYO +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -0.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WYO -0.5 (+7.5) | 142.5 (+5.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WYO -1.1 (+6.9) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WYO -0.6 (+7.4) | 139.0 (+9.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WYO -1.8 (+6.2) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WYO | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#218) | 4.0 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#153) | 0.51 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#157) | 1.08 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#177) | 0.538 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WYO | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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