Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Savage Arena · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TOL -3.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money TOL -150 / UNI +160
Model Predictions
Spread Total TOL win
Actual TOL +4 164 Won
Massey TOL -10.8 (-6.8) — —
Massey Totals — 157.5 (+6.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 97% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TOL -10.4 (-6.4) 151.3 (+12.7) 82% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TOL -8.8 (-4.8) 151.2 (+12.8) 80% ✓
Baseline ML TOL -8.9 (-4.9) 151.9 (+12.1) 80% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TOL -9.2 (-5.2) 153.0 (+11.0) 81% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2022 TOL 83 – 75 UNI

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TOL UNI
Overall 20-12 19-14
Conference 14-4 12-8
Home 12-3 11-3
Away 8-5 6-8
Neutral 0-4 2-3
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 80.0 72.7
Avg Pts Against 76.1 71.8
Massey 5.6 (#85) 0.3 (#160)
Bradley-Terry 1.01 (#97) -1.22 (#277)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.56 (#145) -1.46 (#269)
RPI 0.541 (#117) 0.466 (#227)
Shooting & Four Factors TOL UNI
FG% 48.2% 45.3%
3PT% 38.5% 34.6%
REB / G 30.5 34.0
OREB / G 10.1 8.6
AST / TO 1.13 1.23
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 52.0%
TOV% 17.3% 15.9%
ORB% 30.6% 24.6%
FT Rate 27.7% 18.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.4% 53.4%
Opp TOV% 22.7% 16.7%
DRB% 67.1% 77.2%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 31.4%

Game Analysis

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