Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -150 UNI +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -10.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.4 (-6.4) | 151.3 (+12.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.8 (-4.8) | 151.2 (+12.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.9 (-4.9) | 151.9 (+12.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -9.2 (-5.2) | 153.0 (+11.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2022 | TOL 83 – 75 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#85) | 0.3 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#97) | -1.22 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#145) | -1.46 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#117) | 0.466 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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