Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UNI +188 TOL -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -0.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -0.6 (-8.6) | 150.4 (+7.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -1.7 (-9.7) | 154.6 (+3.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -1.2 (-9.2) | 153.6 (+4.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -1.6 (-9.6) | 152.5 (+5.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | TOL 84 – 80 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#212) | 2.7 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#276) | -0.00 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#265) | -0.11 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#309) | 0.512 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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