Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | IU +250 AUB -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +28 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -8.6 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -5.8 (-22.2) | 141.2 (+38.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.8 (-22.2) | 139.3 (+40.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -4.9 (-23.1) | 140.1 (+39.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.4 (-22.6) | 141.5 (+38.5) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#114) | 12.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#23) | 1.63 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#27) | 2.50 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#51) | 0.590 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.9% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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