Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | MINN -385 FGCU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +20 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -16.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MINN -11.0 (+9.0) | 142.5 (-8.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -14.0 (+6.0) | 144.0 (-10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -14.8 (+5.2) | 144.4 (-10.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -15.1 (+4.9) | 141.8 (-7.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#99) | -6.1 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#175) | -2.14 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#137) | -3.25 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#139) | 0.439 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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