Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1600 CLT +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +24 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -12.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.1 (+13.9) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -11.7 (+12.3) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.9 (+13.1) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -11.6 (+12.4) | 138.7 (-2.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#27) | 5.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#130) | 0.70 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#93) | 1.01 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#132) | 0.576 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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