Tap turns on the water, see the waters flow. "Tap Turns on the Water" - C.C.S.
Patrick Gymnasium · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -3.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money UVM -150 / COLG +163
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVM win
Actual COLG +6 148 Lost
Massey UVM -7.1 (-13.1)
Massey Totals 126.1 (+21.9)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML UVM -7.2 (-13.2) 130.7 (+17.3) 69%
Baseline ML UVM -5.5 (-11.5) 131.0 (+17.0) 64%
Baseline Tuned ML UVM -5.7 (-11.7) 131.6 (+16.4) 70%
Efficiency Plus ML UVM -6.1 (-12.1) 131.7 (+16.3) 71%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 15, 2024 COLG 6560 UVM
Dec 10, 2022 UVM 7372 COLG
Dec 22, 2021 UVM 7868 COLG

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVM COLG
Overall 28-7 25-10
Conference 15-1 16-2
Home 16-1 13-3
Away 10-4 10-5
Neutral 2-2 2-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.9 70.1
Avg Pts Against 63.8 64.9
Massey 2.5 (#127) 1.0 (#154)
Bradley-Terry 1.83 (#52) -0.12 (#190)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.21 (#61) -0.49 (#208)
RPI 0.579 (#66) 0.500 (#175)
Shooting & Four Factors UVM COLG
FG% 44.2% 42.7%
3PT% 37.7% 33.9%
REB / G 34.1 37.5
OREB / G 8.5 8.2
AST / TO 1.29 1.11
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.3% 49.9%
TOV% 15.3% 19.2%
ORB% 25.7% 24.5%
FT Rate 17.3% 15.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.1% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 13.0% 14.4%
DRB% 74.5% 76.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 16.5%

Game Analysis

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