Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Cotterell Court · December 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -1.5 Home covered
O/U 128.5 Under
Money COLG +105 / UVM -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total COLG win
Actual COLG +5 125 Won
Massey COLG -4.5 (+0.5)
Massey Totals 121.2 (+3.8)
Bradley-Terry 47%
Weighted B-T 48%
Baseline Plus ML COLG -2.8 (+2.2) 128.9 (-3.9) 59%
Baseline ML COLG -2.7 (+2.3) 128.3 (-3.3) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML COLG -2.0 (+3.0) 128.3 (-3.3) 56%
Efficiency Plus ML COLG -2.2 (+2.8) 132.1 (-7.1) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 9, 2023 COLG 7771 UVM
Dec 10, 2022 UVM 7372 COLG
Dec 22, 2021 UVM 7868 COLG

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings COLG UVM
Overall 14-19 21-12
Conference 10-8 13-3
Home 10-4 13-3
Away 4-13 7-8
Neutral 0-2 1-1
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.4 64.5
Avg Pts Against 72.7 65.0
Massey -5.3 (#261) -5.4 (#265)
Bradley-Terry -1.66 (#307) -0.72 (#240)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.94 (#290) -0.92 (#236)
RPI 0.434 (#287) 0.485 (#202)
Shooting & Four Factors COLG UVM
FG% 42.4% 39.7%
3PT% 32.2% 31.5%
REB / G 30.5 31.6
OREB / G 7.3 8.4
AST / TO 1.21 0.81
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 46.7%
TOV% 16.4% 19.2%
ORB% 20.7% 24.1%
FT Rate 10.5% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.5% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 17.5%
DRB% 70.3% 66.9%
Opp FT Rate 18.7% 19.4%

Game Analysis

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