Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | COLG +105 UVM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -4.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -2.8 (+2.2) | 128.9 (-3.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -2.7 (+2.3) | 128.3 (-3.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -2.0 (+3.0) | 128.3 (-3.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -2.2 (+2.8) | 132.1 (-7.1) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | COLG 77 – 71 UVM |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UVM 73 – 72 COLG |
| Dec 22, 2021 | UVM 78 – 68 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#261) | -5.4 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#307) | -0.72 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#290) | -0.92 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#287) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 10.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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