Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | TENN -355 ILL +278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -6.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -6.3 (+0.7) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -6.6 (+0.4) | 142.4 (+22.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -6.5 (+0.5) | 144.5 (+20.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -6.2 (+0.8) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ILL 75 – 62 TENN |
| Dec 14, 2024 | TENN 66 – 64 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#12) | 14.3 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#29) | 2.49 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#20) | 3.78 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#19) | 0.603 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 46.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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