Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ILL +110 TENN -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -0.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.2 (-4.2) | 139.8 (-9.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -3.9 (-5.9) | 140.8 (-10.8) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -3.6 (-5.6) | 141.8 (-11.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -3.8 (-5.8) | 140.6 (-10.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | ILL 75 – 62 TENN |
| Dec 9, 2023 | TENN 86 – 79 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#9) | 23.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#46) | 4.09 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#38) | 6.25 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#53) | 0.654 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 46.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 60.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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