Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
| Money | DEP -130 LOU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -6.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -4.3 (+2.7) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -3.0 (+4.0) | 145.6 (-2.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -2.9 (+4.1) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -1.9 (+5.1) | 149.3 (-6.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | DEP 62 – 55 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 3-17 |
| Home | 3-15 | 7-11 |
| Away | 0-11 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L20 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#247) | -4.7 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#306) | -1.19 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#286) | -1.91 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#208) | 0.434 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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