Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | LOU -340 DEP +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +7 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -3.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -5.8 (-12.8) | 144.8 (-27.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -5.3 (-12.3) | 145.7 (-28.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -4.2 (-11.2) | 146.8 (-29.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -4.5 (-11.5) | 149.9 (-32.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | DEP 75 – 68 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#59) | 8.3 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#51) | 1.17 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#51) | 1.71 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#29) | 0.544 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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