Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -110 SELA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +25 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -7.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-40.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.2 (+20.8) | 143.0 (-30.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.5 (+18.5) | 146.1 (-33.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -6.7 (+18.3) | 146.1 (-33.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -6.1 (+18.9) | 146.8 (-33.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | SELA 80 – 62 SOU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | SOU 72 – 66 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#252) | -6.2 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#141) | -3.16 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#219) | -3.75 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#86) | 0.401 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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