Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SELA +120 SOU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SELA -2.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -2.2 (+15.8) | 148.5 (-6.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -2.5 (+15.5) | 149.1 (-7.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -2.9 (+15.1) | 150.8 (-8.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -4.1 (+13.9) | 150.7 (-8.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | SOU 69 – 44 SELA |
| Dec 11, 2021 | SOU 72 – 66 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#240) | -1.0 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#258) | -1.30 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#275) | -1.59 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#296) | 0.482 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 39.5% |
Game Analysis
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