Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -7.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.6 (+0.4) | 145.4 (-7.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.5 (+0.5) | 143.4 (-5.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.8 (+0.2) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.6 (+0.4) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | SOU 69 – 44 SELA |
| Dec 22, 2022 | SELA 80 – 62 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 8-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#271) | -7.6 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#254) | -1.81 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#265) | -2.78 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#260) | 0.387 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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