Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UIW +180 NAU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -2.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -0.6 (-1.6) | 144.8 (+6.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -1.3 (-2.3) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -1.3 (-2.3) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -1.4 (-2.4) | 145.4 (+5.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | UIW 90 – 66 NAU |
| Nov 23, 2024 | NAU 75 – 74 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#294) | -3.3 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#281) | 0.95 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.98 (#294) | 0.77 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#303) | 0.555 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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