Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UIW -285 NAU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +24 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UIW -8.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -6.1 (+17.9) | 132.7 (+23.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -5.1 (+18.9) | 133.5 (+22.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -5.6 (+18.4) | 133.7 (+22.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -5.6 (+18.4) | 135.7 (+20.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | NAU 75 – 74 UIW |
| Dec 9, 2023 | NAU 76 – 75 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | -5.3 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#259) | -1.14 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#245) | -1.41 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#269) | 0.424 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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