Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -200 UIW +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -8.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -5.2 (-4.2) | 138.2 (+10.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -5.8 (-4.8) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -7.1 (-6.1) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -6.7 (-5.7) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | UIW 90 – 66 NAU |
| Dec 9, 2023 | NAU 76 – 75 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#190) | -3.3 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#85) | -0.68 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#108) | -0.82 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#35) | 0.398 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 12.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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