Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -22.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | VT -4000 VAL +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +21 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | VT -19.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -17.8 (+3.2) | 141.5 (-20.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -15.3 (+5.7) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -17.0 (+4.0) | 137.9 (-16.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -17.3 (+3.7) | 140.5 (-19.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-11 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#74) | -7.9 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#66) | -1.25 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#59) | -2.27 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#67) | 0.414 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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