Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -2000 CAN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -15.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -16.7 (-5.7) | 149.7 (+3.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -12.2 (-1.2) | 146.5 (+6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -13.3 (-2.3) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -14.1 (-3.1) | 149.0 (+4.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#38) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#133) | 0.45 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#118) | 0.71 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#116) | 0.525 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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