Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AF -300 EWU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -13.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -9.5 (-14.5) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -12.4 (-17.4) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -12.8 (-17.8) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -13.2 (-18.2) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 15-3 |
| Home | 4-12 | 11-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 10-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#133) | -6.0 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#82) | -1.76 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#103) | -2.85 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#169) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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