We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
First National Bank Arena · December 9, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UAB -5.0 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Over
Money ARST +170 / UAB -205
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARST win
Actual ARST +19 155 Won
Massey ARST -4.0 (+15.0)
Massey Totals 151.4 (+3.6)
Bradley-Terry 45%
Weighted B-T 37%
Baseline Plus ML ARST -1.7 (+17.3) 148.5 (+6.5) 59%
Baseline ML ARST -2.6 (+16.4) 146.7 (+8.3) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML ARST -2.4 (+16.6) 146.5 (+8.5) 59%
Efficiency Plus ML ARST -1.0 (+18.0) 147.7 (+7.3) 48%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 15, 2024 ARST 9889 UAB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARST UAB
Overall 20-17 23-12
Conference 11-7 12-6
Home 10-3 12-5
Away 5-11 7-5
Neutral 5-3 4-2
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.8 77.0
Avg Pts Against 77.0 75.6
Massey -4.4 (#255) -2.9 (#224)
Bradley-Terry -1.84 (#312) -0.40 (#214)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.86 (#317) -0.83 (#227)
RPI 0.398 (#319) 0.487 (#192)
Shooting & Four Factors ARST UAB
FG% 40.2% 42.6%
3PT% 32.8% 27.1%
REB / G 38.7 38.1
OREB / G 13.9 13.2
AST / TO 0.93 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.6% 46.6%
TOV% 20.2% 17.0%
ORB% 33.9% 35.0%
FT Rate 21.6% 29.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 51.5%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 16.8%
DRB% 69.0% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 35.1% 23.2%

Game Analysis

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