Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +170 UAB -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +19 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -4.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.7 (+17.3) | 148.5 (+6.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.6 (+16.4) | 146.7 (+8.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.4 (+16.6) | 146.5 (+8.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.0 (+18.0) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | ARST 98 – 89 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#255) | -2.9 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#312) | -0.40 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#317) | -0.83 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#319) | 0.487 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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