Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -165 ARST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +9 | 187 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -1.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -0.5 (-8.5) | 155.1 (+31.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.2 (-8.8) | 150.3 (+36.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.9 (-8.1) | 148.2 (+38.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -0.2 (-9.2) | 151.7 (+35.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2023 | ARST 87 – 68 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#195) | 3.2 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#302) | 1.55 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#275) | 2.53 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#321) | 0.591 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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