Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | ORST -165 UVU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -1.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -0.8 (+2.2) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -2.9 (+0.1) | 133.5 (+11.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -2.1 (+0.9) | 133.7 (+11.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -2.4 (+0.6) | 135.0 (+10.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#226) | 0.7 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#166) | 1.08 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#163) | 1.18 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#122) | 0.560 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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