He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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60–24 on winners spread MAE 8.3 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Peter's @ Duquesne +10.5 130.8 83% 59–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston College +24.9 144.0 99% 64–95 ✓
Stonehill @ Rider +11.1 149.1 84% 56–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Manhattan +8.0 160.1 77% 76–71 ✗
Army @ Harvard +20.1 129.1 97% 64–70 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ High Point +28.1 174.9 99% 62–75 ✓
Oakland @ Eastern Michigan -6.5 139.7 28% 77–63 ✓
UIC @ Jacksonville State -1.9 122.1 43% 55–49 ✓
Navy @ Quinnipiac +5.2 137.7 68% 68–71 ✓
Tulane @ Mississippi State +3.7 145.5 63% 76–106 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgetown +0.7 156.0 52% 80–68 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UConn +35.4 175.2 100% 63–101 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Kentucky +11.9 169.4 86% 66–81 ✓
Illinois @ Tennessee +7.4 140.8 75% 79–86 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Minnesota +15.4 141.9 92% 57–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Virginia Tech +19.1 137.4 96% 50–71 ✓
South Carolina @ East Carolina -8.2 141.7 23% 68–62 ✓
California @ Butler +18.1 157.8 95% 90–97 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +1.7 156.5 56% 77–91 ✓
Troy @ Dayton +15.2 149.9 92% 70–82 ✓
Towson @ UMBC -0.0 146.2 50% 89–73 ✓
Youngstown State @ Western Michigan -5.5 138.6 31% 72–68 ✓
American University @ VMI +6.9 149.4 73% 77–69 ✗
Alabama @ Purdue +3.7 170.7 63% 86–92 ✓
Kansas State @ LSU +2.3 153.5 58% 75–60 ✗
South Florida @ Florida State +7.8 135.7 76% 88–72 ✗
Central Michigan @ Creighton +33.4 146.4 100% 64–109 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Buffalo -6.7 142.1 27% 82–65 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer -2.3 143.0 42% 60–64 ✗
Longwood @ Delaware State -5.1 144.0 32% 62–61 ✓
Louisville @ DePaul +6.3 150.3 72% 68–75 ✓
Colgate @ Vermont +7.0 125.5 74% 77–71 ✗
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina -4.7 162.9 33% 88–80 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Indiana State +28.2 145.1 99% 54–98 ✓
Cleveland State @ Kent State +11.7 152.2 86% 77–83 ✓
La Salle @ Lafayette -0.6 148.0 48% 67–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Davidson +11.3 142.2 85% 61–79 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Liberty +8.0 147.8 77% 69–64 ✗
Georgia Southern @ North Florida +13.6 158.1 89% 56–64 ✓
Portland @ North Dakota +4.6 149.9 66% 83–72 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Monmouth +3.6 157.8 63% 71–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Toledo +10.6 156.9 83% 80–84 ✓
Auburn @ Indiana -9.2 141.9 20% 104–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Maine +9.9 134.1 82% 56–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ South Carolina State +5.0 152.4 67% 80–71 ✗
Le Moyne @ Binghamton +13.5 148.9 89% 79–91 ✓
Charlotte @ Duke +11.1 139.4 84% 56–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas +27.5 155.9 99% 50–77 ✓
Hofstra @ Saint Louis -7.6 154.9 25% 68–71 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +14.2 133.0 90% 67–72 ✓
Northwestern State @ Southern Miss +12.2 148.5 87% 74–83 ✓
Wisconsin @ Arizona +13.7 151.3 89% 73–98 ✓
UAB @ Arkansas State +5.7 151.3 70% 68–87 ✓
Jackson State @ Houston +32.2 132.9 100% 55–89 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma +10.5 151.7 83% 70–79 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Wyoming -0.4 140.3 48% 70–78 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Georgia Tech +18.8 150.7 96% 49–70 ✓
Marist @ Dartmouth -3.8 120.8 37% 63–53 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Incarnate Word +3.6 146.0 63% 76–75 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Western Carolina +12.5 154.1 87% 63–78 ✓
Marshall @ Ohio +14.1 161.3 90% 74–69 ✗
Drexel @ West Virginia +0.0 118.1 50% 60–66 ✓
Siena @ St. Bonaventure +30.3 129.6 100% 56–89 ✓
Richmond @ Florida +3.9 157.3 64% 76–87 ✓
TCU @ Clemson +2.5 153.0 59% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Radford +10.6 137.5 83% 74–82 ✓
Omaha @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.8 149.5 64% 58–62 ✓
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +1.5 141.7 55% 72–67 ✗
Milwaukee @ UC Davis +11.5 148.0 85% 81–79 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +2.5 137.5 59% 77–64 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Sacramento State +2.1 135.2 57% 62–60 ✗
Utah Valley @ Oregon State +1.6 130.6 56% 71–74 ✓
Santa Clara @ New Mexico +11.1 153.2 84% 76–93 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ San José State +15.7 145.3 92% 82–87 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +14.6 139.6 91% 64–73 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State -5.4 151.2 31% 80–83 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Air Force +12.2 139.6 87% 73–68 ✗
Coppin State @ George Washington +28.7 144.9 100% 45–76 ✓
Canisius @ Pittsburgh +15.2 149.1 92% 71–82 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +5.1 151.0 68% 67–57 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Colorado State +17.4 137.8 94% 64–61 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Southern +8.5 153.2 78% 44–69 ✓
Cincinnati @ Xavier -1.4 154.2 45% 79–84 ✗
Bryant @ Stony Brook -0.7 133.4 47% 75–86 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.