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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–24 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU
@
Utah
|
-8.1 | 157.1 | 23% | 69–73 | ✗ |
James Madison
@
Old Dominion
|
-9.2 | 169.1 | 20% | 84–69 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
South Dakota
|
+11.0 | 141.0 | 84% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+0.9 | 132.1 | 53% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Western Illinois
@
Green Bay
|
+10.8 | 131.4 | 84% | 68–59 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+3.6 | 161.3 | 63% | 84–77 | ✗ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
+29.0 | 147.2 | 100% | 80–89 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Illinois State
|
+7.1 | 128.3 | 74% | 64–58 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
Missouri State
|
+8.7 | 148.8 | 78% | 60–69 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Wichita State
|
+4.3 | 147.1 | 65% | 79–69 | ✗ |
UCLA
@
Villanova
|
+8.5 | 130.3 | 78% | 56–65 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Fresno State
|
+15.0 | 138.0 | 91% | 56–89 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Austin Peay
|
-0.5 | 140.6 | 48% | 49–53 | ✗ |
Drake
@
Nevada
|
+4.4 | 153.3 | 66% | 72–53 | ✗ |
NJIT
@
Wake Forest
|
+23.7 | 151.9 | 98% | 59–83 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Southern Utah
|
+7.3 | 147.7 | 75% | 74–82 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Seton Hall
|
+5.6 | 128.3 | 70% | 70–63 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+0.0 | 143.3 | 50% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Marquette
|
+23.0 | 132.6 | 98% | 59–78 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Weber State
|
+12.4 | 133.9 | 87% | 50–78 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Oregon
|
+16.6 | 145.8 | 93% | 49–71 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Utah Tech
|
+11.0 | 145.9 | 84% | 63–62 | ✗ |
UC San Diego
@
Pepperdine
|
+4.6 | 142.2 | 66% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
UNLV
|
-2.7 | 144.6 | 40% | 78–75 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
San Diego State
|
+10.0 | 143.8 | 82% | 62–63 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
San Diego
|
-1.7 | 137.8 | 44% | 84–89 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
Washington
|
+4.1 | 157.7 | 64% | 73–78 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Fordham
|
-8.5 | 129.0 | 22% | 59–60 | ✗ |
Brown
@
Providence
|
+16.1 | 137.9 | 93% | 54–74 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Little Rock
|
+3.8 | 166.3 | 63% | 85–68 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Wagner
|
+1.9 | 119.3 | 57% | 73–59 | ✗ |
Princeton
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-2.0 | 137.4 | 43% | 70–74 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Iowa State
|
+22.7 | 142.7 | 98% | 56–107 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Miami
|
+0.6 | 159.9 | 52% | 90–63 | ✗ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Ball State
|
+3.6 | 126.7 | 63% | 71–83 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Northwestern
|
+21.8 | 135.9 | 98% | 59–91 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
Charleston
|
+8.4 | 147.7 | 78% | 70–85 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
VCU
|
+17.0 | 146.3 | 94% | 58–86 | ✓ |
St. Thomas
@
Chicago State
|
-2.6 | 124.8 | 41% | 66–50 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
North Alabama
|
+4.9 | 145.4 | 67% | 86–77 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+13.3 | 141.9 | 89% | 73–70 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Texas A&M
|
+12.9 | 154.9 | 88% | 81–75 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
USC
|
+12.0 | 157.9 | 86% | 84–79 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
UCF
|
+10.9 | 139.5 | 84% | 70–68 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
East Tennessee State
|
+11.9 | 135.6 | 86% | 72–73 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Iowa
|
+9.9 | 168.8 | 82% | 90–80 | ✗ |
Elon
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+15.5 | 161.7 | 92% | 73–82 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Boston College
|
-3.5 | 153.5 | 38% | 80–86 | ✗ |
Tennessee State
@
Lipscomb
|
+10.5 | 151.3 | 83% | 71–78 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Iona
|
+17.6 | 135.8 | 95% | 54–61 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.6 | 141.0 | 56% | 57–72 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Nebraska
|
+2.4 | 134.0 | 59% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.