Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | USD +285 ASU -365 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -2.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+34.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -0.7 (+5.7) | 143.1 (+29.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -1.2 (+6.2) | 140.7 (+32.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -0.8 (+5.8) | 140.3 (+32.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -2.3 (+7.3) | 143.8 (+29.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | ASU 90 – 53 USD |
| Dec 19, 2022 | ASU 91 – 67 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#230) | 4.3 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#216) | 1.70 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#229) | 2.49 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#228) | 0.608 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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