Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | ASU -750 USD +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +24 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -16.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -13.4 (+10.6) | 146.3 (+11.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -14.5 (+9.5) | 145.8 (+12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -14.3 (+9.7) | 145.6 (+12.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -13.9 (+10.1) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2024 | ASU 90 – 53 USD |
| Dec 10, 2023 | USD 89 – 84 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#39) | -0.8 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#23) | -0.45 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#14) | -0.22 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#31) | 0.475 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.7% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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