Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -7500 USD +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +37 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -24.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -20.2 (+16.8) | 146.0 (-3.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -19.6 (+17.4) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -18.8 (+18.2) | 143.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -18.4 (+18.6) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | USD 89 – 84 ASU |
| Dec 19, 2022 | ASU 91 – 67 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 6-27 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-13 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#51) | -8.0 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#13) | -2.10 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.92 (#17) | -2.45 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.703 (#9) | 0.340 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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